Mom, age 95, and her cousin-in-law, age 99, reuniting at the Oregon vs. Illinois football game yesterday. |
Weather: I am writing this post early because I will be traveling again this weekend. So I can only generally report that the weather has turned, or is turning to fall weather. Cool nights have meant we added another blanket to the bed but still keep the window open. On Tuesday it was sunny during the day but cloudy off in the foothills so we couldn't see Mt. Rainier. Almost time to hunker down. It is good football weather. It was sunny and warm during the football game yesterday. In fact, I worried about getting a sunburn.
3. Enthusiasm is on the Dems side. Remember 2016 when Hillary was doing fine, but Trump had all the enthusiasm on his side? Well, the tables have turned. "Since Kamala stormed onto the scene, the script has flipped. She has drawn packed crowds everywhere and the enthusiasm has been off the charts. We are hungry, hungry to save our Democracy. And Kamala Harris is the perfect messenger. Trump rallies, on the other hand, have the creepy feeling of a crypt." Need more evidence? Watch Beyonce with Kamala at a rally in Houston.
4. Likeability. The past two elections show that plenty of voters who don’t approve of Trump’s character will support him anyway. But favorability can make a difference in a close race—and Harris‘ rating is much higher than Trump’s. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Harris has a net favorability rating of -0.6 percent, while Trump’s is at -8.8 percent. Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, is the only candidate on either ticket with a positive favorability rating.
5. Trends. Not polls but trends predict the winners and Stuart Stevens is very bullish on Harris winning the race. (Vanity Fair, Oct. 23, 2024)
6. Early voting. 61-37% Harris Walz. At least 35% of the GOP voters are crossing over.
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