Predicting the 2025 Pulitzer Prize Fiction winner with math!
I visited the five internet sites (the only ones I could find) which had predictions for the 2025 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction. Next I assigned points for the books' rankings on those sites. Ten points for the top contender down to one point for the 10th place on their list. (In the first column books 6-10 were tied so I gave them all 3 points.)
The thirteen titles, listed below on the chart, were the top contenders out of 26 books mentioned overall. Overall James by Percival Everett took top billing on all five sites, down to Tell Me Everything by Elizabeth Strout and The Hearing Test by Eliza Barry Callahan which were only mentioned by one predictor each, but were in the top half of their list, so I included them.
As you probably know, the Pulitzer Prize committee does not give readers any hints. On May 5th, they will just make an announcement of the winners (for fiction and for other categories) so this is really an effort in futility trying to predict the winner. Most (all?) other book prizes committees announce finalists or short lists weeks/months in advance of the award ceremony. Every year the Pulitzer selection committee is different and the members are not even introduced until the day the awards go out. So one can't even guess based on past performance. But still, it is fun to take a guess and then wait to see the results.
Seven of the thirteen on my list were mentioned on the internet lists at last three times (out of five). Let me examine them a bit closer:
Pro:
a. A brilliant reimagining of The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn story, told from the viewpoint of Jim, an enslaved man. It is an instant classic.
b. So many literary merits --- among them...
-National Book Award winner 2024
-Andrew Carnegie Medal for Fiction 2025
-Kirkus Prize for fiction 2024
-Booker Prize Nominee shortlist 2024
-PEN/Faulkner Award nominee shortlist 2025
Con:
It is rare for the Pulitzer and the National Book Award to go to the same book.
Pro:
a. "Electrifying, funny, wholly original." A fantastic debut novel by poet Akbar.
3. Wandering Stars by Tommy Orange (28)
b. Literary merits --- among them:
-National Book Award nominee shortlist 2024
-Andrew Carnegie Medal nominee shortlist 2025
-Brooklyn Public Library Prize for literary fiction 2024
Con:
Kaveh Akbar is a debut novelist so the committee wouldn't have previous nominations and writings to look back on. By comparison, Percival Everett was a finalist in 2021 for his novel Telephone. Often the award goes to writers who were finalists before.
Pro:
a. Orange's debut book, There There, garnered much literary merit. Wandering Stars is a sequel of equal merit, to my mind. It is truly an American story.
b. Literary merits:
-Booker Prize Longlist nominee 2024
-Joyce Carol Oats Prize nominee 2025
c. Covers important historical events of the Sand Creek Massacre of 1864 and the Carlisle Indian Industrial School autrocities.
Con:
It is a sequel.
Pro:
a. "It is a remarkable evocation of the feeling of being in exile at home, and it introduces a gentle, unforgettable alien for our times."
b. It is science fiction which would be a unique choice for the committee.
c. A National Book Critics Circle Nominee for 2024.
Con:
This book represents a miss for me, as I missed it when I was gathering the list of the top 50 books of 2024. Science fiction could also be considered a con, as one predictor said, "I don't think I've ever heard of the Nebula Award possibility in the same sentence as a potential Pulitzer."
Pro:
a. "A luminous novel about friendship, family, and the unthinkable realities of exile."
b. Literary merits:
-Orwell Prize for Political fiction 2024
-National Book Critics Circle Award 2024
-Booker Prize longlist nominee 2024
-National Book Award finalist 2024
Con: (?)
Though Hisham Matar was born in the US, he lives in Britain and is described as British-Libyan. He won the Pulitzer in 2017 in the Biography category.
6. All Fours by Miranda July (17)
Pro:
a. "A surprisingly funny novel about a woman who is upending her own life."
b. Literary merits:
-Women's Prize nominee shortlist 2025
-National Book Award finalist 2024
-Carol Shield Prize nominee 2025
Con:
Touted as a woman's book, a lot of women won't be able to relate to having their lives upended. Greg at 'Supposedly Fun' describes this book as a cilantro book -- you either love it or hate it. // Only two predictors named this book.
7. The History of Sound by Ben Shattuck (16)
Pro:
a. Interconnected short stories set in New England
b. Literary merits:
-Audie Award nominee 2025 for short stories
-PEN/Faulkner Nominee fiction 2025
Con:
It has been a lot of years since a short story collection won the Pulitzer in fiction. This is another miss for me as it wasn't identified as one of the top 50 books of the year by my reckonings.
8. Creation Lake by Rachel Kushner (14)
Pro:
a. "A work of high art, high comedy, and unforgettable pleasure."
b. Literary merits:
-PEN/Faulkner Nominee fiction 2025
-National Book Award longlist 2024
-Carol Shield Prize nominee 2025
-Booker Prize shortlist 2024
Con:
It is a spy novel. Don't get me wrong, I like spy novels but does the committee?
James by Percival Everett. YAY! Here is the announcement. The committee did the right thing and selected a book sure to become a classic!
The Pulitzer Prize winner for fiction will be announced on May 5th at noon.
And the winner is....
James by Percival Everett. YAY! Here is the announcement. The committee did the right thing and selected a book sure to become a classic!
-Anne
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